A model to predict the risk of mortality in severely ill COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: To investigate and select the useful prognostic parameters to develop and validate a model to predict the mortality risk for severely and critically ill patients with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We established a retrospective cohort of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (≥18 years old) from two tertiary hospitals: the People's Hospital of Wuhan University and Leishenshan Hospital between February 16, 2020, and April 14, 2020. The diagnosis of the cases was confirmed according to the WHO interim guidance. The data of consecutive severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to these hospitals were analyzed. A total of 566 patients from the People's Hospital of Wuhan University were included in the training cohort and 436 patients from Leishenshan Hospital were included in the validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression were used to select the variables and build the mortality risk prediction model. RESULTS: The prediction model was presented as a nomograph and developed based on identified predictors, including age, chronic lung disease, C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer levels, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), creatinine, and total bilirubin. In the training cohort, the model displayed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.912 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.884-0.940] and good calibration (intercept = 0; slope = 1). In the validation cohort, the model had an AUC of 0.922 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.891-0.953] and a good calibration (intercept = 0.056; slope = 1.161). The decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: A risk score for severely and critically ill COVID-19 patients' mortality was developed and externally validated. This model can help clinicians to identify individual patients at a high mortality risk.

Serum Uric Acid Concentrations and Risk of Adverse Outcomes in Patients With COVID-19.

Background: Although hyperuricemia frequently associates with respiratory diseases, patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) can show marked hypouricemia. Previous studies on the association of serum uric acid with risk of adverse outcomes related to COVID-19 have produced contradictory results. The precise relationship between admission serum uric acid and adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients is unknown. Methods: Data of patients affected by laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and admitted to Leishenshan Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome was composite and comprised events, such as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, or mortality. Logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the association between serum concentrations of uric acid and the composite outcome, as well as each of its components. To determine the association between serum uric acid and in-hospital adverse outcomes, serum uric acid was also categorized by restricted cubic spline, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to estimate odds ratios (OR). Results: The study cohort included 1854 patients (mean age, 58 years; 52% women). The overall mean ± SD of serum levels of uric acid was 308 ± 96 µmol/L. Among them, 95 patients were admitted to ICU, 75 patients received mechanical ventilation, and 38 died. In total, 114 patients reached composite end-points (have either ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death) during hospitalization. Compared with a reference group with estimated baseline serum uric acid of 279-422 µmol/L, serum uric acid values ≥ 423 µmol/L were associated with an increased risk of composite outcome (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.07- 6.29) and mechanical ventilation (OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.06- 8.51). Serum uric acid ≤ 278 µmol/L was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.18- 3.65), ICU admission (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.17- 4.05]), and mechanical ventilation (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.06- 4.28), as assessed by multivariate analysis. Conclusions: This study shows that the association between admission serum uric acid and composite outcome of COVID-19 patients was U-shaped. In particular, we found that compared with baseline serum uric acid levels of 279-422 µmol/L, values ≥ 423 µmol/L were associated with an increased risk of composite outcome and mechanical ventilation, whereas levels ≤ 278 µmol/L associated with increased risk of composite outcome, ICU admission and mechanical ventilation.